I am just curious how much work goes into measuring Media Center's market potential and affordability against things like DVR Set-top boxes and other competing solutions.  Can you say anything about that?

Also, if you haven't heard Tivo is close to releasing a Tivo HD Series 3 Lite unit for $299.  Of course they always leave off their monthly subscription requirements.  But the cost of entry is definitely a factor in platform adoption.

It might be time to migrate Media Center onto Windows Home Server.  If you do that, replace the Media Center "server" functionality on OS skus with a Media Center Connector application.  Just an idea.

 

I think you have to remember that Microsoft only produces the software, not the actual computers themselves. And to be fair to them, this will always be an issue. I don't think any HTPC manufacturer is seriously trying to get the cheapest system...instead, they're marketing it for what it is--something that has tivo-features within it's massive other offerings.

Also remember that most people who are looking for a PVR already own a computer, and that PC's are cheap and people upgrade them semi-often.  With Media Center being included in Vista, it's something they already have.  One of Microsoft's biggest problems is that most people don't know that they have Media Center sitting on their PC.

Chris hit the nail right on the head. I remember that's what got me into it HTPC's in general, was i had plenty of spare PC parts, and didn't want to pay (at the time) the $200 TiVo price PLUS the $13/monthly fee. So for me, for the price of say, a tuner & the OS, bam, i'm up & running, no ongoing cost (besides my time :-P)

USArcher:

Also, if you haven't heard Tivo is close to releasing a Tivo HD Series 3 Lite unit for $299.  Of course they always leave off their monthly subscription requirements.

I'm not sure how "close" they are since there's a thread in the AVS Forums HD DVR section with the title "Comcast TiVo Coming Soon" that was started in May 2006. TiVo's a baffling company. If they had the idea to do a more cost competitive HD DVR, why would they come out with the more "sticker shock" MSRP $799 Series 3 first?

I ditched my standalone TiVos and now use my Gateway 832GM for the same tasks they did and more! I added a PCI ATSC tuner for a whole lot less than a S3 TiVo would have cost me and I don't have to pay a monthly subscription. TiVo Cast just didn't impress me, it's a big deal @ TiVo Community Forums that DLTV and Cranky Geeks are available now, but I've been getting them through TV Tonic for awhile now, so it rates a BFD to me.

TiVo's fine, but I just find a MCE PC to be a more rounded and versatile media option which the user has more control over, if they so choose. Fact is for the Home Media Options of the Series 2 TiVos, a PC or Mac has to be involved to stream photos or music from and to store extracted TiVo recordings. I'm at the point where I no longer see the need for TiVo involvement since my MCE PC is connected to a SONY 42" HDTV and amp.

the numbers are going up because its the version most people package with a new machine.  I see a lot of people going for more out of their machines now because they are discovering it, theres no more finding it first...  I see some people converting old machines (after all new machines are dirt cheap now) to try it in different ways....

however, I don't see features growing.  its not ahead of the curve, its definately not cheaper.  I see the market ramping up to compete and in some ways blowing right past it..

It's going to be interesting over the next 2 years to see how this all shakes up.  I personally think the companies that can rapid develop their products, constantly change them up so people don't have time to look at others and make them dirt simple and reliable will be the more dominant force.  

This is something I wonder about all the time. As I think about the features I want in a system (cable cards/ DirectTV support, QAM etc). I sit back and wonder the costs vs. what I get. I am one, like a lot of people here, who have a PC only for tv (HTPC), so it's not used for daily PC tasks, only for watching tv.

So, lets see here, in the last 3-4 years, I have dumped in about $1200-1500 on my HTPC now. I wannt more HD channels, so the only way I can get them is with a cable card or DirecTV/Dish network with my Vista Media center PC.

Cable cards ? Nope, unless I dump my system and buy a new one. DirecTV/Dish Network ? Who knows, no one will tell anyone anything if it's comming or what. QAM ? Yea, It can be "hacked" for another $170 (HDhomerun). The cable card or Directv/Dish network is the only option I have to get Discovery HD, NESN HD, ESPNHD, HGTV HD, etc.

New system with dual cable card support, let's see here....$2500(for a good model with good specs)..Hmmm...My cable company offers their HD PVR system for $15 a month(about the same range for Directv or dish), so based on that...it would take 166 months or 13 years to equal the cost of a new system, never mind the upgrades every 8-12 months because hardware gets outdated.

Using old hardware does not work any more if you want HD content, you need the newest gear to get the best from it.

Over all I do like most of the features I get from Media Center and I do enjoy it but, I wonder if it's a better value to get a system from another company because it would be cheaper over all.

I have two TIVO units, 4 FIOS STBs and 2 VMCs.  Everything works great except the VMCs. The VMCs work about 95% of the time but I stll get a pause every 3-5 minutes for 2-3 seconds in HD recording and live OTA HD.  It is so frustrating that I would jump on another bandwagon in a New York minute (whatever that means as I am in Texas!).  If anyone can solve this problem...I would dearly appreciate it.  This is my fourth media center build and all of the previous ones worked just fine, including HD.
Ted

DavidinCT:

Over all I do like most of the features I get from Media Center and I do enjoy it but, I wonder if it's a better value to get a system from another company because it would be cheaper over all.

Better value depends on what all is important to you.  It will always be cheaper upfront to rent a single DVR from your cable company then it will be to own a Media Center PC.

But, switch it up a minute.  Currently, a cable STB leases for about $12 a month.  If you need more than one in your home, that adds up quickly.  We have four STBs, and at $12 a month per STB that's $576 a year!  What a rip off, considering I don't own them ever!  For two years of cable service, that's over $1100 just for the cost of the hardware.

Now, switch to Media Center.  I single Media Center PC (we will go with CableCARD just because) is going to be able $2500 for a good model with good specs (2x CableCARD, and 2x OTA).  I own this PC and the only thing it really costs me monthly is electricity (something you can't get away from) and the price to lease two CableCARDs (about $3-6 total per month).

Now, I might already have an Xbox 360 that I can use as an Extender.  So, now I just need x standalone Extenders to meet my needs.  I'll figure $200 for each, and I'll get 3 of them.  That's $600 for something that I own, or about the price of yearly cable STB retal ($12/month/per STB).

As I have figured out, the upfront cost of using Extenders vs. regular cable STBs is much greater ($48/month for all STBs vs. the $600 upfront of Extenders), however I own the Extenders and pending Microsoft not being stupid and cutting them off the next version of Media Center, I would consider it a good investment myself.

The Media Center PC is the largest upfront cost, but depending on your usage it can still be used as a standard PC too (I still do this).  So, that upfront cost turns more into me upgrading a 3 year old PC.  I maybe spent more on it then I would a traditional desktop replacement, but I did gain the ability to....

--Record all shows in a central location
--Share pictures and music throughout the house
--Maybe catalog all my DVDs for whole home playback
--Ability to add plug-ins to make my overall life easier (home automation)
--and so on.

I'm not saying Media Center should be in every home, the opposite actually.  Media Center should be something to consider if you want more than you can get with your Cable or Sat. DVR and STBs.  The cost will be greater, but in my example above I could justifiy it.  Not everyone can, and it most likely means that Media Center is not for you.  It would be a better value to stick with what you have or go with a solution from another company.

I think a bigger issues then price is the fact that Microsoft fails to listen to the current consumer base (us, TGB) and add features and design a product that we all like, and that's functional for the other side.  Stupid things like QAM without hoops actually drive a lot of people to a product.  Countless others, but I'm sure we all know about them.

TMG01:

Everything works great except the VMCs. The VMCs work about 95% of the time but I stll get a pause every 3-5 minutes for 2-3 seconds in HD recording and live OTA HD. 

Vista's drivers still are not ready, the main reason I have yet to switch. Sad thing is now you have to "give it time" to fix itself.  Not really something you should have to do, but hey DIRECTV just updated the software on my STB and now it's slow as a rock.  Guess I just have to give it time. 

TMG01:

It is so frustrating that I would jump on another bandwagon in a New York minute (whatever that means as I am in Texas!).

New York Minute: "Immediately. Equates to a nanosecond, or that infinitesimal blink of time in New York after the traffic light turns green and before the ol’ boy behind you honks his horn.” -from Texas Crude, the book that the term might have come from in the first place. - http://www.worldwidewords.org/qa/qa-new1.htm

Chris - Moderator:

It will always be cheaper upfront to rent a single DVR from your cable company then it will be to own a Media Center PC.

I have 2 HD DVRs and one SD DVR for my DIRECTV programming and I didn't get the MCE thinking it would replace those, I got if for over-the-air channels, not every station in my area is doing ATSC and those are the only signal aside from the DIRECTV satellites the HD DVRs can receive. Even if I do find I can add a DIRECTV tuner card, I'd still hang on to at least one HD DVR because I have Lifetime Service and I've come to find that one DVR, dual tuner or not, is not sufficient. The standalone TiVos were expendable primarily because of the analog cut off in 2009.

I can understand those who are looking for it to be their primary DVR for multichannel providers at this point in time would be disappointed.

Hmm...interesting thread.

So the original question was something like do we think about how competitive we are. Of course we do - we're very familiar with competing products (including doing our research on the upcoming Tivo Series 3 Lite and other new products).

Someone did the math to say it would take 13 years to break even if you dedicate a new PC to Media Center versus get a Tivo or other DVR and pay a monthly fee; sure. But they don't do music, photos, and other services we have today and things that will be forthcoming. We're also working on creating an ecosystem with our extender V2s and Xbox 360 - in theory, you're going to have a PC in your office and you're going to buy a TV. If a TV comes out that is an Extender V2 itself, there's not really much incremental cost for you to connect them, right?

There was also a question about integration with Home Server - I'll confirm we're talking, and I'll start a new thread to ask how you'd use it (i.e. what you'd want to see us do).

I may be way off here, but I tend to think that competiveness is only a primary factor to people like us on these sort of forums, and that we aren't neccessarily typical of the average consumer.

We are largely more tech savvy and are prepared to tinker around with things in order to make them do what we want or expect and so are more easily prepared to compare things on a competitive basis only. The average consumer however wants, expects and is used to things working out of the box, and if it doesn't then it doesn't really matter how competitive it is.

In this regard MCE, partcularly when use with an extender is a niche product with limited appeal. If I have to either re-encode video files or download codecs and hunt around to find and install third party transcoding applications just so that I can stream my holiday videos to my 360, then to me it's a pain in the neck, but to the average consumer it's a non starter, and a cable box, pvr or tivo type product is far more appealing.

I've had MCE 2005 and a 360 for quite a while, and am not especially price conscious, so within reason would pay whatever neccessary to do what I want to do with the minimum of fuss and problems, but this simply isn't achievable in a user friendly way. Microsoft has had a huge head start with MCE and extenders and yet today it still feels and acts like a beta product.

I've been hunting around for an alternative solution that will give me what I want and despite my high hopes, no longer believe an extender will ever fulfill that requirement. Currently, the most cost effective solution, that will give me the flexibility I need, looks neat and tidy, and is user friendly, would seem on paper to be a mac mini hooked up directly to my TV. It pains me to even consider this route as I truly love pc's and prefer Microsoft, but when it comes to home entertainment, I no longer want to have to tinker about with things just to make them work, I just want to switch it on and watch.

Even the merest hint that Microsoft was going to open up streaming formats to extenders would give me some hope that my 360 wasn't redundant as an extender, but unlike most companies who like to keep customers aware of their roadmap and planned products/improvements, Microsoft take the unusual stance of keeping everything secret.

In conclusion, a Media Centre PC and extender is an expensive option, although somewhat mitigated by the fact that many people may already have the bulk of the components. However unless they can do what people want and expect without unneccssary fuss, then it doesn't really matter how competitive it is as it will always remain a niche product for the geeks, tinkerers and unusually patient.

abraxus has put quite eloquently part of what I had hoped to say.  Especially the part about the secret road map.  It is very hard to see the Microsoft vision and road map for Media Center.  It is also very hard to know which features are really being worked on and which aren't, and the motivation for these things.  Obviously, TGB is an enthusiast community and we have different wants and needs than the average user, so we are often blind to the common needs.  It would help to have someone tell us what is really coming and why instead of hoping its in the next roll-up and knowing that if it isn't we will have to wait an entire year before getting a feature or perhaps even hearing about it again.  I'll try to stop ranting now, and I do understand some of the reasons for not exposing every detail.

As for MCE competition, I always see it like this:

Cable Co DVR's are the easiest to obtain, setup, and use and have no upfront cost.  Unfortunately, they are completely lacking in features and have a monthly fee.  Sometimes, totaling the rental fee, dvr fee, and required digital packages fees can get very expensive.

Tivo is a very attractive and easy to use solution.  The support for cable cards makes it doubly so.  Tivo can also do a lot of media streaming from a PC now, like movies, pictures, and music.  They even have a movie download service.  Once again they have a monthly fee, but I'd certainly recommend one over a Cable Co DVR..

Finally, there is SageTV and other software DVR's.  I'm surprised that no one else has mentioned these, because they are more direct competitors to MCE.  Sage is even planning to release a version that runs on Windows Home Server.  It has very similar functionality to Media Center, has a software extender for PC's as well as hardware extenders for other use.  The interface isn't quite as pretty as MCE, but it works.  Finally, they aren't tied to, and limited by, the other arms of a massive company with occasionally conflicting interests (DRM, coded support, etc).

The biggest downside to SageTV and the like are that once you have MCE, you have to buy those packages to switch.  If you are reusing an old system then you have to buy one or the other anyway.

- the Hun

thehun101:

Finally, they aren't tied to, and limited by, the other arms of a massive company with occasionally conflicting interests (DRM, coded support, etc).

This is good for some, and horrible for some.  What makes Media Center more competitive with other options is the fact that it supports CableCARD.  Sage, Beyond, etc will never get CableCARD or HD support other than unencrypted QAM and OTA.  Some people might be fine with that, however in the long run it's going to screw them over when you want to compare it to other options offered through Sat or Cable companies.