As the subject line states, this is total speculation but I thought I'd throw it out there for discussion to see if it has any merit. Without a flourishing extender market, owning a WMC rig is like owning a Hayabusa and never riding it off of city surface streets. You have a whole lot of potential that never gets used. To fully appreciate what WMC can do you would want to set up a central server and then have MCXs driving all of the other TVs in the house. This makes for an excellent Multi-Room Viewing system. While there are other MRV options out there, this one is particularly appealing because of the wide range of features. With the announcements in the last few weeks regarding improved and expanded CableCard options, the feature set has only improved.

Soon there will be a 4 tuner CableCard PCIe card available. CableLabs has dropped the OEM restriction. 7MC is by all accounts the best MC version yet. People are going to be able to build WMC server boxes relatively cheap. Flat panel TVs have drastically come down in price allowing many households to have several of them. DVR has become a household term and "DVRing" is something that nearly everyone is familiar with.

I've been following WMC for the last couple years trying to decide when I should actually jump in and build out my MRV setup. There's always been something missing or too restrictive causing me to hang back and wait. I wired my house 2 years ago in anticipation of installing some form of a WMC MRV system. So far I have mostly "dark copper" running through my house. But, with all that's happened lately, I'm getting the vibe that now is the time to invest the money and get a working WMC system online.

The only problem... all of the MCXs are being discontinued. Well, that kinda throws a wrench into the plan now doesn't it? Of course there is the XBox 360 still. Not being a major gamer I don't even own one (I do have an XBox though, hey I have a wife and two kids). I could see getting one XBox 360 to use for games and also be an extender but there's no way I'm going to hook one up to every TV in my house. Besides, they're noisy. I'd venture to say that a lot of others feel the same way. So HP is out, Linksys is out, D-Link is probably out (perhaps confirmed by now?), the Toshiba Regza with built-in MCX is MIA. Would all of these companies just cease MCX production at the same time out of coincidence?

I'm thinking Microsoft has realized that licensing the MCX platform is going nowhere. The devices were just to expensive to get anywhere near the mainstream market. On the flipside lowering the licensing fees did not make economic sense due to ongoing development costs on MS's end. So, if the only way to expand WMC usage is to have a robust MCX market, then what can MS do to further that goal? What if they decided to scrap the whole MCX licensing program, essentially pulling the plug on third party MCX manufacturers? This would explain the abrupt exit of all of them from the market recently. But they still need MCXs deployed so thay decided to go it alone and build their own. Perhaps we're not too far off from hearing MS announce that they will release a MS branded MCX. Ideally this would be a small STB with a powerfull processor that can decode all of the latest prevalent formats. It would have to deliver where all of the v2 extenders came up short.

Of course MS has to make money on this. They can't just give them away and they can't price them too high. At $99 they'd sell a zillion of them. However there's no way they can manufacture them, sell them at that price and make a profit. So where will they make their money? Get this, from their online movie rental service a.k.a NetFlix. Yes MS buys NetFlix and subsidizes their MCX devices with revenue from that service. It's the printer/ink cartridge model applied to home entertainment. You can get printers for practically a bag of peanuts these days. The printer manufacturers make their money on the recurring ink/toner revenue. The same thing is possible with home entertainment I believe. If they did it right they end up with something that is everything that Apple TV is plus everything that Apple TV is not. It would be hands down the supreme MRV system available.

Of course this is all speculation. And since no one knows what's up with MCXs right now, I find myself back in wait mode, again. If something doesn't happen over the next 6 to 12 (and that's probably pushing it) months though, I suspect there will be other MRV systems available that are "good enough" to relegate WMC to nothing more than a cool app that only TGB types even know about.

I'd be quite happy if Extenders died so long as Soft Sled existed. This opens up the possibility of very low power systems but which are totally upgradable in the future.  Not holding my breath though.

cmcfarling

At $99 they'd sell a zillion of them.

 

You appear to be grossly overestimating the market that uses Media Center.  Change this number to "a few hundred thousand" and your right.  High price of Extender's isn't stopping people from using Media Center, so lowering the price of Extender's really doesn't increase the marketshare.

 Well I am contemplating going the low powered ITX route as extenders. 4 ITX Media Center PCs' and an Entertainment Server from S1 Digital using there Network Streaming Live TV solution. This will serve my Multi-Room Audio and Video solution going forward. Maybe throw to Xbox 360s' in the mix for watching copy protected Recordings throughout the house.

Chris - Moderator

You appear to be grossly overestimating the market that uses Media Center.  Change this number to "a few hundred thousand" and your right.  High price of Extender's isn't stopping people from using Media Center, so lowering the price of Extender's really doesn't increase the marketshare.

 

 Agreed, a zillion may be a little on the high side. Of course $99 is not the magic number either, perhaps it would be less. However I would argue that extender prices have definitely been a factor that's kept them from becoming more pervasive. Most of the other hindrances have now been overcome. Yes there is the market that uses WMC now, but MS is most certainly looking ahead to the market that will use WMC. Then again maybe they're not. My thought process is that if they intend to make WMC a major player in the home entertainment market, they probably have a fairly short window to make that push. My post describes one way that they could go about accomplishing that.

 I'm one of the few under the impression that Microsoft has little to no interest in moving Media Center into the living room.  I think you are right that other solutions will come along and be "good enough" for most.

There is an interest interview with Steve Ballmer on YouTube where he talks about Microsoft making a first party phone.  In the interview he basically says anything less than 300 million units is a niche product and Microsoft would be better served making software and licensing it to third parties who make hardware.  Interesting concept, his number might be a bit high and given that statement it seems unlikely Microsoft would be interested in a first party hardware Extender.

I don't share the complaints of others with regard to noise from the 360. Maybe because I have a later model that has better cooling and is therefore quieter. It's in my bedroom and the noise isn't audible unless the dvd drive is spinning. At $200, it's about at the price of the Linksys extenders (DMA2200 prior to discontinuation). I got my DMA2100 for $99 and my DMA2200 for $169 (from Newegg... price included a free 250 GB SATA drive). Even if you're not a gamer, the xbox has value beyond being just an extender. Until an easy and quality solution exists to stream a DVD image from your 7MC rig, the upscaling DVD player is a great addition. If you're a Netflix subscriber and can afford the $5/month for a Gold Live account, that app on the xbox is pretty sweet. Over the last couple of years I struggled with plugins to to achieve this... with very mixed results. Netflix on the 360 is at least solid and supported.

Additionally, after I got my 7MC installed and configured properly, I discovered the greatness of the PlayOn media server. I missed the season premiere of Fringe and Heroes last week... the day after broadcast, I was able to watch these on Hulu via the PlayOn server. I originally bought this software to assist in streaming the content (including netflix) to my Linksys extenders, but never was able to get it to work reliably. PlayOn shows up as a network option in my Video Library. They need to work a little on the folder display of Hulu... but that may not even be within their power.

Microsoft does have a branded extender, the Xbox360. They're only going to get cheaper as time goes on. (maybe even smaller)

You may be right, Microsoft may not have any interest to have Media Center in the living room, but I do and every other room in my home that has a TV. I flat out can not afford a $3,500 multiroom live TV solution. My wife and I do not play console games so we are not happy to be forced into buying the XBox360 Arcades, but this is what we are limited to do in order to accomplish our goal.

 

I don't pirate movies, I don't steal TV shows, I simply want to be able to view, record, watch live TV and movies how I want and when I want to throughout my home. I absolutely hate the Verizon FIOS set top boxes and the idiotic programmers that can't seem to develop a 16:9 TV guide (among a long list of other things). With Media Center all of that changes, if I don't like something then I can just change it or develop my own solution. At least thats what I envision but all of these corporate bureaucrats don't think that we are capable of such things or we shouldn't have that right to do so.

 

Considering that Microsoft apparently has no desire to release there own "Soft Sled", why can't they publish a document describing what it would take for developers to create their own? If you aren't going to do it, then at least give us the option of doing it ourselves. I am sick and tired of being told "no, you can't do that" without any good reason why we can't.

Pick up a couple Xbox 360 arcades.  The new ones have HDMI built right in... they're not noisy anymore... and they are the best extender experience.  If you have two kids, I'm sure they'll appreciate being able to play games....  You will too. 

The arcade is like $200 now....  That's pretty close to what a little shuttle PC is going to set up back, minus the software update, virus, and malware headaches.

You are wrong about extender cost being an issue, at all. The extender costs peanuts compared to a decent media center PC, especially if you are talking about one that handles multiple HD streams. The biggest thing keeping people from using WMC as their primary DVR has been the cable companies encrypting everything but broadcast TV, CableLABs having made it impossible to build your own OCUR system (OEM OCUR costs way too much, especially with the only tuner for it being $300), and the risk that your PC may not be able to view as many channels in the future due to SDV usage. The new relaxed CableCARD restrictions and CableCARD + SDV solutions coming from at least 3 companies changes all this, dramatically, making the timing of the extenders being discontinued just incredible. Note that none of the extenders are particularly new either. I'm sure much better encryption & compression hardware has arrived since they were designed, and 802.11n has been finalized, and I suspect/hope they may be simply retiring the old models and waiting for stock to disappear before announcing new improved versions with the Windows 7 launch.

Chris - Moderator

There is an interest interview with Steve Ballmer on YouTube where he talks about Microsoft making a first party phone.  In the interview he basically says anything less than 300 million units is a niche product and Microsoft would be better served making software and licensing it to third parties who make hardware.  Interesting concept, his number might be a bit high and given that statement it seems unlikely Microsoft would be interested in a first party hardware Extender.

 

Here's the interview you are referring to. He mentions 50 million units as being niche and 300+ million being non-niche. I wonder what 50-300 million would be defined as? From what I can gather the portable media player market is somewhere in the 50 million range, maybe slightly lower or slightly higher, but it's nowhere near the 300 million mark. And yet MS is there with the Zune. I don't necessarily buy his spiel that MS is only interested in 300+ million unit markets for hardware products.

In that interview Ballmer also speaks about his three screens and a cloud vision (and somewhat dorkily explains how it reminds him of Three Men and a Baby). He specifically talks about Windows PCs driving TVs, which would seem to indicate that MS is interested in getting into the living room still.

Extenders need a wired network to really work with HD.  How many people have a wired network? I personally know very few people who do. 

 The cable company will run coax all over your house for a small charge.  Who does that for extenders?  

In some ways I am sad to say that I agree with Chris.  I do not think Microsoft as a whole see a large benefit to the Media Center community or our idea of PC on a TV.  We have discussed this in the past, but it is about return on investment for them.  We may see future iterations of the extender model, but most likely from third party companies and future Microsoft game consoles. 

I think Ben Drawbaugh is right in saying that MC getting greater traction is through picking the low hanging fruit, Xbox live gold subscribers.  These people are clearly networked to their 360 and almost likely have a PC in their house that they can now just stick a cablecard in at a low personal cost, and enjoy all their content in a new and exciting way.  If this crowd gains ground there is a chance at more widespread adoption, but I don't forsee MS taking a proactive approach.  Most Americans have a PC in their house, and having an extender such as the ones Toshiba's has promised are the cheapest and most fruitful points of entry for mainstream adopters (especially if they stick an extender in a blu-ray player).

As for Netflix, I do not think the company wants to be tied down to a single console.  They are doing quite well for themselves, and a joint venture with MS may not be in the best interest of an expanding business model.  I believe their CEO has even said they want to be on more devices.  Dont get me wrong I love media center and would kill for widespread acceptance, but I just dont think MS wants to keep investing in this arena.  There are a lot of hoops to go through and arriving on the otherside is no guarantee of success.

KGROPPE

Extenders need a wired network to really work with HD.  How many people have a wired network? I personally know very few people who do. 

 The cable company will run coax all over your house for a small charge.  Who does that for extenders?  

Google:

1) powerline Ethernet

or

2) Ethernet over coax

FSUGrad1999

Google:

1) powerline Ethernet

or

2) Ethernet over coax

 

I was thinking the same thing. For example www.corinex.com.